“France has General DeGaulle and Spain has General Franco. But We have General Motors and General Electric”, so people would say when I first got US in sixties. Ge is splitting into three different companies after it was put through a wringer over last several years. General Motors was reorganized after a bankruptcy during early Obama years. I guess it is an end of era.

Also, the financial construct of Conglomerates has run its course. Nobody is smart enough to manage many companies with disparate businesses any more. Under legendary Jack Welch GE was a financial company masquerading as an industrial company that almost went under during the financial crisis of 2008. Financial side had covered all sorts of sins being committed by other groups. Jack was swimming naked but Jeff Immelt was exposed when the tide went out. Company never fully recovered and is finally paying the piper.

Incidentally, during dotcom era GE was valued at $600 billion, right up there with Microsoft and Cisco. GE’s valuation today is $117 billion and Cisco’s $239 Billion. Only Microsoft is riding high at $2.5 Trillion.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-end-of-the-ge-we-knew-breakup-turns-a-page-in-modern-business-history-11636509385?st=m29uaza06lpc4xe&reflink=desktopwebshare_linkedin

This is the classic photo of the traitorous eight who defected from Shockley Semiconductor and founded Fairchild Semiconductor in 1959. That was the start of what came to be known as Silicon Valley. Bob Noyce and Gordon Moore were later founders of Intel. Eugene Kleiner was the the founder of venerable VC firm by the name of Keiner, Perkins, Caufield and Byers.

I arrived in the Santa Clara Valley in 1971. Intel, AMD, and National were the startups people were excited about. HP and IBM were the old established companies. I saw the the valley expand beyond its semiconductor roots when Apple was founded. Introduction of IBM in 1981 turbocharged the entrepreneurial activity. We formed Excelan in early 1982.

I was super lucky to be at the right place at the right time. It has been an incredible ride!

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/20/technology/jay-last-dead.html?smid=li-share

The Free Lunch Theory, aka as Modern Monetary Theory, is finally getting its refutal. With $30 trillion national debt heading towards $40 trillion and an out of control inflation it is hard to defend the theory with a straight face any more. It reminds me of stagflation of seventies that eventually required harsh monetary policy of eighties to bring order to the economy. Free spending to provide free every thing for all doesn’t pass the smell test. We have spent $20 trillion in deficit spending in last 12 years. It eventually had to show up in prices.

Jimmy Carter was a one term president because of that stagflation. Let that be a cautionary note to Joe Biden!

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/06/business/economy/modern-monetary-theory-stephanie-kelton.html?smid=li-share

 

India received more than $100 billion of foreign aid between 1950 and 1990. Foreign aid was the only source of foreign currency as India did not have much to export that world wanted. Aid India Club met annually in Paris to make commitments so India would know how much to expect. Foreign currency was tightly controlled hence FERA and FEMA and famous $8 men, of which I am one.

Foreign Aid was the worst possible thing that could have happened. It enabled bad economic behavior to last far longer than would have been possible. It was the economic crisis of 1991 that forced the hand. Now, India has a close to a $500 Billion in foreign currency reserve. India has an IT industry of almost $300 Billion dollars.

1991 liberalization only dismantled the extremes of the license/permit Raj. Vajpayee government got back to liberalization when finance sector, aviation sector, automobile sector and telecom sectors were liberalized. The results were spectacular.

There is a lot more liberalization yet to be done. For India to emerge as an economic powerhouse it needs to back to that agenda.