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I am not a epidemiologist. As a EE, my expertise is physics and math. So I am using the facts as put out by CDC and other experts. There are two elements to the spread of virus: exposure and transmission.


Here are some facts:
It takes 15 minutes of exposure in close proximity of an infected person to catch virus with 100% certainity. Half the time cuts the chances to half.
Distance and barriers make transmission harder.Six feet of distance from a sick person reduces the chance of catching virus by 95%. Half the distance quadruples the chances.
Barriers reduce the chances depending on the effectiveness of the barrier. a N95 mask cuts the chances by 95%. An ordinary surgical mask is 80% effective; a home made 3 layer cloth mask is bout 60% effective.
Positivity rate in random testing tells us the chances of running into an infected person; 10% positivity rate ( the current rate in California) says that only one in ten random people we get in contact is likely to be infected.


Given those facts, if we wear a home made mask and come within 3 feet of a stranger who is not wearing a mask and linger for one minute only; our chances of catching virus is is only .0467%, that is less than 1 in 2000. If stranger is also wearing a mask, the chances are reduced further 65% and are now .0163%.If social distance is increased to six feet, chances are further reduced by 75% and are now dow. That is down to .004% or one chance in 25,000.


Given that, if we test and eliminate the infected people, we should be able to open schools and businesses with very little risk.

If positivity rate is 1% as we have in New York now, all we will have to do is make everybody wear a mask and maintain 3 feet distance to open the schools and businesses with little risk.

We live with those kind of risks currently when we drive.

It is not only Hari Singh Nalwa but also Maharaja Ranjit Singh who never got due respect.

Afghans had ruled India except for the Mughal period. Mohmed Ghouri, Sher Shah Suri and Ibrahim Lodi conqured and ruled India. Babar had defeated Ibrahim Lodi, an Afghan in the first bettle of Panipat in 1526 to start Mughal dynasty. Later, Nadir Shah ( Iranian/Afghan) and Ahmed Shah Abdali defeated Mughals and in case Of Abdali also Marathas in the third battle of Panipat.

Traditional border between India and Afghanistan was Indus river. Maharaja Ranjit Singh consolidated Sikh Misls into a Sikh empire and spent 40 years ejecting Afghans out of Punjab. He pushed the border to the other side of Khyber Pass. Hari Singh Nalwa was the general who led the charge. Kashmir, Peshawar, Gilgit and many other areas of NW Punjab were all wrested away from Afghans. He sealed the Khyber Pass as the invasion route to India.

It was the English who enjoyed the fruits of Hari Singh’s and Ranjit Singh’s labor

The Jawaharlal Nehru’s speech on the August 14, 1947 celebrating India’s freedom has to be one of the grandest speeches of all time. He had put in inspriring words the aspirations of all Indians. He probably set impossible goals but they were universally approved.

It is easy to trash Nehru now. But it is hard to underestimate his achievments. India did adopt a constitution, did hold elections on time, did let the federal structure take hold. It was only one of the newly independent countries that did not end up wit a strong man rule.

He nurtured the constitutional institutions, especially the parliament. He not only talked in lofty terms about the temples of new India but helped build them. IHis emphasis on Sceinctific temper begot us IITs, IIMs, Research labs, TIFR, AEC, ISRO, and various other institutes of higher learning.

In retrospect his economic policies turn out to not so great. Five year plans were misguided. Adoption of socialism turned a nation of natural entrepreneurs into a beaurocratic morras. His foreign policy, of talikg loudly while carrying a small stick also turned out to be not so great.

But on a whole, he laid the foundations of a strong cohesive nation with reasonably strong institutions. India did congeal into a cohesive nation under him.

I guess only time will tell what the current disposition will achieve but I am glad it was Nehru at the time of independence who took the helm.

It frustrates me to see a generation of Indians being raised on alternate facts about Mahatma Gandhi and his role in the Indian Freedom movement.

Mahatma, a sobriquet given to him by Tagore, was by no means a perfect human being. His Experiments with Truths were strange in many respects. His neglect of his wife and children are well documented.

But he did come with novel tools that turned India’s freedom movement to a mass, all India, movement. He went from being a properly dressed brown Englishman to a half naked Faqir to identify with ordinary Indians. He changed a political movement to a moral/legal movement and changed the nature of discussion.

Emphasis on non-violence was brilliant. Civil-disobedince was a new techniqure against force was very ineffective. Filling up jails voluntrily made the unjust criminal justice system totally useless.

His techniques tugged at the heart of ordinary people in England who had no idea about unjust and illegal nature of the their Raj in India.

His techniques have proven efficacious for American Negoes in his fight for justice and fight against apartheid in South Africa.